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Issue #2 · Week of April 14, 2026
The Mortgage Vet Weekly
Straight talk on rates, the local market, and your community
★ ★ ★
Paul Messina · Canopy Mortgage · NMLS #2679956
Weekly Rate Snapshot
Where Rates Stand This Week
30-Yr Fixed
6.37%
▼ Down from 6.46%
15-Yr Fixed
5.74%
▼ Down from 5.77%
1 Year Ago
6.62%
You're 0.25% better off
30-Year Fixed Rate — Last 3 Weeks (Freddie Mac)
This year
1 yr ago
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) · Released weekly Thursdays. Rates shown for well-qualified borrowers, 20% down, conventional purchase. Your rate may vary.
Rates dipped back down this week after a small bump — the 30-year fixed is at 6.37%, the lowest it's been in a few weeks. A Middle East ceasefire agreement pulled bond yields down, giving mortgage rates a little room to breathe. We're still 25 basis points cheaper than we were a year ago at this time. That's real money. On a $350,000 loan, that difference is about $55 a month — roughly $660 a year.
Real-time daily rates from Mortgage News Daily show the market around 6.28% as of Friday, Apr 11. Freddie Mac's survey captures the prior week's average. Talk to me for what you'd actually qualify for.
BREAKING TODAY
NAR Report Released April 13, 2026 · 10:00 AM ET
National Market Flash
Existing Home Sales Missed Projections — Here's What It Means for You
3.98M
Homes Sold (Annual Pace)
Expected: 4.06M
-1.0%
Year-Over-Year Sales
Below last March
$408,800
National Median Price
↑ All-time March high
4.1 mo
National Supply
Up from 3.8 mo in Feb
The NAR dropped its March 2026 existing home sales report this morning — and the number came in short. Sales ran at a 3.98 million annual pace, about 1% below where they were a year ago and below the 4.06 million economists projected. Month-over-month, sales dropped 3.6% — the second largest single-month decline since November 2022. NAR also slashed its full-year 2026 sales forecast from a projected +14% all the way down to just +4%.
Here's the straight translation of what this actually means for buyers and sellers right now:
🔑 Fewer Buyers = Less Competition Right Now
Sales have been hovering near 4 million a year since 2023. The long-run normal is 5.2 million. That 1.2 million gap? Those are buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for certainty. Right now, if you're qualified and ready to move, you're competing against fewer people than usual. That window won't last forever.
📈 Prices Don't Care About Volume
The national median hit $408,800 — an all-time record for any March going back to 1999. Prices have increased year-over-year for 33 months straight. The data is clear: fewer sales does not mean lower prices. Waiting for a price drop while sitting on the sidelines has not worked for three years running.
🏔️ Great Falls Is Not the National Market
The national pullback hit hardest in the Northeast (-8.5% m/m) and Midwest. The South and West — where Montana sits — actually held up better. Here in Great Falls, we have 1.73 months of supply vs. the national 4.1 months. Our market is tighter, prices are up 17% year-over-year, and homes are selling at 98.5 cents on the dollar. The national headlines don't tell your local story.
⚠️ The Confidence Problem — And What to Do With It
NAR's chief economist cited "lower consumer confidence and softer job growth" — not interest rates — as the reason people aren't buying. Rates actually eased this month. What this means: the obstacle is psychological right now, not financial for qualified buyers. If you have stable income, good credit, and a real need to buy or sell, the fundamentals haven't changed. The hesitation is in people's heads — and that creates a window for people willing to act.
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing-Home Sales Report, April 13, 2026 · FactSet economist consensus
Great Falls Market
What's Happening Right Here at Home
$357,500
Median Sale Price
↑ +17.2% vs. last year
1.73 mo
Months of Supply
Down from 2.07 mo last year
161
Homes Sold (March 2026)
↑ Up 151% year-over-year
98.56%
Sale-to-List Price Ratio
Homes selling near asking price
Median Sale Price — Great Falls, MT (YoY Comparison)
Source: Redfin, Houzeo · Great Falls, MT · March 2026 data
Great Falls is moving. Median prices are up over 17% year-over-year, inventory is tight at under 2 months of supply, and homes are selling at 98.56 cents on the dollar — meaning sellers aren't leaving much on the table. If you've got buyers sitting on the fence waiting for prices to drop, they may want to hear this: the market here isn't overbuilt. It's undersupplied. That's a different story than what you'll see in some overheated metros.
State Market Snapshots
California & North Carolina — What the Numbers Say
Paul is licensed in four states. Here's a quick read on where California and North Carolina stand right now — whether you're working with relocating buyers or just keeping tabs on the broader landscape.
Vet & First Responder Corner
The VA Loan Assumption — A Hidden Weapon
Most people have never heard of a VA loan assumption. Here's the short version: if a veteran bought a home in 2020 or 2021 at a 2.5–3% interest rate, that loan can potentially be assumed by a new buyer — meaning the buyer takes over the original mortgage at that original rate. You don't have to be a veteran to assume a VA loan.
Think about what that means right now. A $300,000 loan at 2.75% is roughly $1,225/month (P&I). That same loan at today's 6.37% rate is around $1,870/month. That's a $645/month difference — or $7,740 a year. If a seller is willing to negotiate around the assumable loan, that's a legitimate competitive advantage for your buyers.
VA assumptions require lender approval and the right situation, but they're real, they work, and most agents have never talked to their clients about it. If you want to know if a home your client is looking at has an assumable VA loan, call me. I'll help you dig it up.
Talk to Paul About VA Loans →Buyer Tip of the Week
Spring Is Here. The Window Is Open.
Spring buying season is live — and in Great Falls, that means inventory starts ticking up while buyer competition heats up at the same time. The buyers who got pre-approved in March are already out there making offers. The buyers who wait until May are going to be playing catch-up.
Rates dipped this week. That might last a week or it might not — nobody knows. But here's what we do know: getting pre-approved costs you nothing, it locks in your buying power, and it gives you the ability to move fast when the right home hits the market. In a 1.73-month supply environment, "I'll think about it" doesn't win offers. Pre-approval does. It takes me about 20 minutes to get you started. Call or text me at (406) 788-9843.
Community Events
What's Happening Around Great Falls
-
APR15Eli Young Band at The Newberry7:30 PM · The Newberry, 420 Central Ave, Great FallsMusic
Country music at one of Great Falls' best live venues. Good date night. -
APR18Giant Springs Chapter Big Game Banquet4:30 PM · Mansfield Convention Center, 2 Park Dr S, Great FallsCommunity
Annual banquet supporting local wildlife conservation. Great event for the hunting and outdoor community. -
APR20Great Falls Animal Shelter Online AuctionApr 20–26 · Online · YourCharityAuction.com/GFASCharity
Bid on donated items and local experiences — 100% of proceeds support the Great Falls Animal Shelter. A good cause worth spreading around. -
APR25Great Falls Gun & Antique Show9:00 AM – 6:00 PM · Pacific Steel & Recycling Four Seasons Arena, 400 3rd St NWLocal Favorite
One of the best-attended shows in the region. Whether you're a collector or just browsing, worth checking out. -
APR2646th Annual Ice Breaker Road RaceDowntown district, River's Edge Trail & Missouri River · 5-mile, 3-mile, and 1-mile optionsCommunity Annual Tradition
A Great Falls tradition. Run or cheer. Proceeds and prizes provided by local sponsors including Benefis and Scheels. Packet pickup Apr 25 at the Civic Center.
Also Coming Up — Other States
- CO Denver Home & Garden Show continues through April · Colorado Convention Center, Denver
- CA National Association of Realtors Mid-Year Legislative Meetings · Washington D.C. — good intel coming from those rooms
- NC Dogwood Festival · Downtown Fayetteville, mid-April — one of the bigger spring community events in the state
Realtor Spotlight
Partner You Should Know
Terral Black
Broker / Owner · North Star Realty · Great Falls, MT
⭐ Veteran-Owned & Operated
Terral Black runs North Star Realty right here in Great Falls — and he does it the right way. Veteran-owned, veteran-operated, and built on the same principles you'd expect from someone who served: straight talk, follow-through, and zero games.
Terral and I share an office at 1601 2nd Ave N. That's not an accident. When your buyer needs to move fast, having your lender and your Realtor in the same building means faster communication, fewer dropped balls, and smoother closings. We've built our workflow around that. It works.
Whether your clients are veterans looking to use their VA benefit, first-time buyers navigating the Great Falls market, or relocating families coming to the area, Terral's the guy I trust to take care of them on the real estate side. He's the real deal.
Work With Me
Are You a Realtor in MT, CO, CA, or NC?
I work alongside agents who want a lender that actually communicates, closes on time, and knows the VA loan process inside out. If you want to talk about how we can work together — or you have a deal you need eyes on — I'm one call away.
Call Paul: (406) 788-9843 Visit veteranlogroup.comPaul's Note
From the Desk of The Mortgage Vet
PM
This week, mortgage professionals from across the country are gathering in Washington D.C. for the MBA National Advocacy Conference — running now through Thursday and one of the most important events in our industry. This is where lenders, brokers, and loan officers go to meet with lawmakers and make sure housing policy reflects what's actually happening on the ground — in places like Great Falls, not just the coasts.
The conversations happening in those rooms right now matter. Veterans' access to VA financing, FHA loan limits, appraisal reform, down payment assistance — these aren't abstract policy debates. They're the difference between a vet in Great Falls getting into a home or not. I stay closely connected to what comes out of these conferences because it directly affects what I can do for the people I work with.
Community impact isn't a talking point for me. It's why I do this job. If you've got a deal, a question, or just want to talk about what's coming in the market — my door is always open.
— Paul Messina
Branch Manager · Canopy Mortgage · NMLS #2679956 · US Army Combat Vet
@TheMortgageVetPaul